Path: santra!tut!draken!kth!mcvax!uunet!cs.utexas.edu!tut.cis.ohio-state.edu!mailrus!jarvis.csri.toronto.edu!utgpu!utzoo!henry From: henry@utzoo.uucp (Henry Spencer) Newsgroups: sci.space Subject: postmortem on L5 Message-ID: <1989Apr21.210847.6901@utzoo.uucp> Date: 21 Apr 89 21:08:47 GMT Organization: U of Toronto Zoology Lines: 366 Readers may recall that I commented, a few months ago, on the L5 Society's prolonged illness and eventual demise-by-merger. A little while later, I got the following as mail from Keith Henson. He included a covering note saying it was okay to post it if I felt it would do some good. I think it might; at the very least it's fascinating history. Note that it's definitely one man's view, and that I don't necessarily agree with it all. The occasional typo and misspelling are as I received it; out of a combination of respect for source material and laziness, I haven't made any attempt to fix them. ------------- Postmortem on L5 (Editorial note. This was rejected by the new NSS publication--too spicy.) "O'Neill Testifies Before Congress--. . . Target dates for this proposal are the establishment of a construction site in 1982 and completion of the initial L-5 community of 10,000 people in 1988. The first (SPS) power would be beamed to earth in 1989." *L5 News*, Vol. 1, #1 By H. Keith Henson, (Officially) a Founder of the Society. The dust has settled after the merger and the name change attempt has been discredited. Has the promise of the merger been fulfilled? Is the human habitation of space cause better off? No way. Membership drifts downward from a level only half that need to support NSS unless continually pumped up by expensive membership drives. Volunteers are in short supply. *Space World* is insipid to the point of nausea. *Ad Astra* (the new publication) faces similar prospects. The space shuttle flies again, but there is no sense of direction. Malaise hangs heavy over NSS and the rest of the space community is not much better off. How different from the "good old days" when (in spite of the fact that we never accomplished much) the Society grew and waxed in influence on a combination of enthusiasm, intense personal dedication, and sacrifice. What changed? Is there anything we can do to recapture the spirit of that era? Is there anything (before reaching the holy grail of nanotechnology) we can do that would help bring about the human habitation of space? Far from being a rhetorical question, tentative answers to these cultural dynamics questions can be found using the new mental tools of memetics.* Those who are upset by the "N" word or the "M" word should stop reading here. For the rest, a little history is in order. ----------- footnote If you are not up on memetics, see "Memetics, the Science of Information Viruses" in *Whole Earth Review* Winter 1987 or the Science Fact article in the August 1987 issue of *Analog*. ------------- The space colony dream (a meme) grew in the mind of Dr. Garard O'Neill from his own work, that of his students, and fragments of previous dreams (Tsiolkowsky, Cole, Bernal, and others) in the late sixties and early seventies. In September of 1974 (the year that also saw the first small conference at Princeton) Dr. O'Neill' space colony meme made the big time (small b) with a publication in the September 1974 issue of *Physics Today*. Because of my long standing and locally known interest in space development (thanks to the late Robert Heinlein) and my more recent concerns about preceived resource limits, Dan Jones, an occasional rock climbing partner of mine with a PhD in physics knew I would be interested--infectable, nay, I was actively seeking infection with a meme like this. He brought me a copy of Dr. O'Neill's article within hours of that issue reaching Tucson. (The "Colonies in Space" article ranks high on the list of "most xeroxed" in the world.) After reading it, I immediately tried to find anything else that had been published on space colonies. The only other material available was an interview with Dr. O'Neill that had been published in *Mercury* about the same time. He mentioned a small conference on space colonies that was being planned at Princeton the following May. Despite the fact that I was nearly broke from starting a business, had never been to a conference before, or given a paper at a meeting, or even been on the campus of an Ivy League school, I was so motivated by the meme that I made it to the 1975 Space Manufacturing Conference, and, with my former wife, gave a paper on space agriculture that covered all the major points involved in environmental control and growing food for thousands of people in space. (Much of the paper, I must admit, was cribbed from Heinlein's *Farmer in the Sky*). Perhaps half of the major players in the post '72 space movements found out about the space colony dream, were similarly affected, and were drawn to that conference. A few months before the conference, Dr. O'Neill had melded into the space colony dream the solar power from space (SPS) concept invented by Dr. Peter Glaser (he holds the soon-to-run-out patent). This was the last major ingredient needed to put the space colony meme into an intensely infective form, at least for some people. Energy from space provided a rational for building colonies in space, especially in the memetic environment induced by energy crisis of the early seventies. Ideas with far less promise (but shorter time and size scales) *were* converted into reality. Anyone driving through the California passes can see them, vast fields of windmills built on tax breaks. At the conference, Dr. O'Neill gave a Spook-like presentation on building SPS's and space colonies (literally) from moon dust. His studies (rational enough to be published in *Science*) made it seem logical that the habitation of space with all that attractive new land could be started by a short term industrial development project of 10 to 15 years. For those of us raised on science fiction, (at least for those who would actually go into space if we were given the chance) the space colony/SPS meme was terribly compelling. The '75 SMF conference was a intense, almost religious, experience. It will be a bright spot in the memory of the "world savers" who were there as long as any of us are left alive to remember it. I hope that somewhere a tape survives of the impassioned banquet speeches, and the dire warnings from shell shocked NASA representatives that if Proxmire got wind of this craziness he would "kill the Shuttle." The space colony idea inspired a vast outpouring of effort from those of us who "caught" it. Summer studies ('75, '76 and '77) put the design into a form that has not changed noticeably in the last decade. Mid-1975 saw the abortive start of "High Frontier," and in September the less-than-auspicious founding of the L5 Society. Late in '75 the fledgling Society put in an appearance at the "Doom and Gloom" Limits to Growth conference near Houston. Our star was Dr. Peter Vajk who (in the process of folding in energy from space to the computer models) had begun to suspect that the Limits to Growth models were "cooked." I wouldn't mention LTG, but the growth in popularity of one meme often depends on the cultural environment (or memetic ecosystem) set by other memes. The space colony/SPS prospects of nearly limitless energy and materials stands in stark contrast to LTG. Though I can't prove it, I think that the LTG "dreary, limited, hopeless future" meme created a cultural environment where a contrasting meme of bright, exciting prospects such as space colonies/SPS could infect those dismayed by the LTG meme. In 1976 the space colony/SPS idea began to spread widely. Those most infected joined the L5 Society. L5 grew beyond the first two hundred or so who had direct contact with Dr. O'Neill. The Society made its first appearance at a World Science Fiction convention (MidAmericon) at the urging of the noted science fiction author, and later L5 activist, Dr. Jerry Pournell. A letter in Playboy by science fiction author Robert Anton Wilson, promotion by Dr. Timothy Leary (who had independently come to the conclusion that we needed to leave the planet) and a continuing series of articles in magazines and newspapers were significant factors in the spreading of the space colony idea and the growth of L5 that year. Funding for space colony/space manufacturing/extraterrestrial resources studies never amounted to much, but SPS funding under the Department of Energy peaked at about $10 million a year in the late '70s. Several companies, notably Boeing, worked on it. The L5 Society got involved in one of those glorious waste of money by a liberal administration, a study of how the space buffs felt about SPS. The end of the SPS funding came in 1979. I still have a plastic portfolio dated April 22-25 1980 from a national conference that was held in Lincoln, Nebraska to officially report on the success of the technical and economic studies, and unofficially moan about the political end of a project that had been kicked back and forth between NASA and DOE, and died on the rocks of cheaper oil and four year planing horizons. With the SPS economic rational gone, the believability of space colony dream suffered. As prospects for near term space habitation faded, the rational for an L5 Society faded, but the publicity stirred up by the Moon Treaty fight kept the moribund Society growing in numbers (if not dedication) for some time. In July of 1979 the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space reported out the long awaited Moon Treaty for ratification by the member states. Defeating the Moon Treaty is generally considered to be the peak of L5's influence. In a nutshell, a meme (the treaty) which evolved in the minds of a number of international lawyers to socialize the resources of the universe clashed with the frontier-libertarian-free enterprise space colony memes carried in the minds of a lot of L5 members. So far, the treaty-meme has lost. Jerry Driggers, an aerospace engineer much taken by Dr. O'Neill's ideas (he gave a major paper at the '75 conference and was at all the summer studies) took over as L5 president right in the middle of the Moon Treaty fight. The ebbing of the energy crisis made it unlikely that SPS funding would be resumed any time soon. With no other hook to hang space colonies on, Jerry made a conscious choice, to direct the Society away from space colonies and into the NASA political support role--particularly pushing for the space station-- that NSI should have filled, but never did very well. Since then, the focus has been reaching the broader base of space support at the cost of diluting the intensity. In retrospect (and certainly with no blame on Jerry Driggers) I think this was a serious mistake. The meme of expansion into space by government projects involving a few astronauts has wider appeal, but the appeal is quite weak. It motivates only a very few civic minded techno-nerds to work hard for it compared to the number of us who will bust ass even for a remote prospect that they could personally go into space. Long ago Dr. O'Neill attributed the attractiveness of his ideas to the personal opportunity factor. (see *The High Frontier*, pg 251.) This change in focus, or if you will, meme switch, pulled the heart out of L5 and put NSI and L5 into almost the same memetic "ecological niche." It made a merger, or the demise of one of the two almost inevitable. The two organizations were also put into direct competition for financial resources. Jerry's attempts to raise money for the Society from the aerospace industry (which had long supported NSI) to support this redirection of effort was a failure, and a personal disaster. It is easy to see why he thought the aerospace industry would provide support. L5 had come to national attention over the Moon Treaty*, and Jerry had the help of Dr. Thomas Paine who was head of NASA during the Apollo landings and Lee Ratiner, a negotiator for the government on the Law of the Sea treaties and hero of the Moon Treaty fight. But it is hard to invade someone else's niche. The aerospace companies were comfortable with NSI. Even if NSI didn't accomplish much, it was unlikely to embarrass them, and the same could not be said of L5. During the early years, the space shuttle (one of the keys to O'Neill's space colony dream) kept falling further and further behind its projected flight date. This hurt the believability factor as well. While it finally started flying in 1981 it never reached the projected flight rate, and the cost per pound lifted to orbit has continued to soar, especially since the Chalenger blew up. While "extraterrestrial materials multiplier" might compensate for the rising cost, it doesn't look like cargo space to Low Earth Orbit to start a manufacturing facility could be obtained from NASA for any price. It is fairly clear that some other--perhaps non-governmental--transportation will be needed to colonize/industrialize space. -------------- (footnote) (NSI never took a stand on the Moon Treaty, I have been told that NSS did take a formal position against the treaty about a year after the merger, but I am uncertain where this was reported.) -------------- No reason to go, and no way to get there. Does this glum picture leave us with any hope? What would induce people in the US or elsewhere to tap the resources of space, and coincidentally give the space nuts among them a chance for at least a weekend in orbit? A few years ago, I considered the SDI project the only current possibility, but SDI seems less and less likely, not because it isn't a better idea than the alternatives, but because the idea has become stale, and the perceived threat of nuclear war has declined. Also, the current proposals do not require extraterrestrial resources, and that is the *only* way (prior to nanotechnology) that more than a handful of people will get into space. My current best guess is that concerns about the greenhouse effect will bring the SPS meme back into popularity. This country isn't going to tolerate hotter and hotter summers if there is anything we can do about it. SPS is the only option for baseload electric power currently known that makes no acid rain, carbon dioxide, or nuclear waste. The greenhouse effect is also a long term concern, longer than the time scale on which space industry could be established. This should insulate the memes on which the project will depend from losing influence over four year political cycles and short term fluctuations in the price of energy. The August 30 *San Jose Mercury News* carried a long article by the well known science writer William J. Broad discussing SPS as a greenhouse solution. This might be an early sign of a resurgence of the SPS meme. Of course, SPS built from earth resources, perhaps by robots, won't help us space buffs get off the mudball either. The idea of building SPS out of extraterrestrial materials has to become the accepted approach. The physics/engineering/economics seems to be favorable, but there are problems. Foremost is the mind-boggling number of steps required to get from today to SPS power through manufacturing facilities based on extraterrestrial resources. The environment in which the space colony/SPS meme grew during the early days of L5 just wasn't fertile enough to get itself and those who believed in it into space. In memetic terms we could say the idea did not infect enough people long enough, and strong enough, for the economic and political factors, like those that built the windmills (taxmills?) to come into play. But the space colony/SPS idea did spread far enough for it to be considered as a solution to a another perceived problem a decade latter. Last summer I visited Grand Coulee dam, a project in its day as ambitious as SPS (and coincidentally it produces about the same amount of power as *one* SPS.) The people who promoted Grand Coulee dam worked on it for decades, promoting it primarily to lift water for irrigation on the fertile, but dry, plateau. It was finally built for another reason entirely, to provide jobs in response to P(a great depression, and secondarily to pump water (few at the time thought that much electric power would ever be needed). It was pressed into use to supply electricity to Boeing during WW II, and now it is mostly used to supply peaking power to the Northwest. There are no Columbias left to dam, but geosync can hold enough SPS's to entirely phase out the use of coal. Can we do anything to speed the acceptance of SPS from extraterrestrial material? Will the environmental groups take over promoting SPS? Should we leave it to them? I cannot answer. Memetics is far from an exact science, and behavior of a meme in the "meme pool" of human culture may be like other unpredictable (that is chaotic) systems. After an epidemic (memetic or otherwise) gets started, its short term course can be predicted with considerable accuracy. It is also possible to say that the environment (low immunity for example) is conducive to an epidemic. But a community can go on for an unpredictable time before one actually happens. In a similar way, the SPS/space colony idea is out there, and the memetic environment might be changing in ways that improve its chances for infecting large numbers of people strongly enough for it to become reality. This leads to an interesting possibility. Maybe we should not be talking about the SPS solution just yet. It might be better for us to terrify everyone by talking about 140 degree summer heat, hurricanes of 250 miles per hour, and introduce the SPS solution to this nightmare only after the public is in a panic. If SPS were to be promoted from within the NSS, the narrow focus of NSS on a NASA space station would have to be changed. It is not obvious to me that the existing governmental agencies concerned with space are appropriate to build or even oversee building "solar power dams" in space. NASA is a trembling shadow of its former glory, and the shuttle is not the vehicle for the job of building a solar power industry in space. The traditional approach is to abandon the old and start anew. Perhaps in a few years we will be hearing about SPS planing by the straight shooters at DCDC, the Department of Carbon Dioxide Control. Postscript on "Postmort" "Our clearly stated long range goal will be to disband the society in a mass meeting at L-5." Ibid. Did I *really* think an organization with the audacious goal of disbanding at a mass meeting in space would actually accomplish that? Immaterial. Without exciting and ambitious goals people never accomplish anything. ------------- -- Mars in 1980s: USSR, 2 tries, | Henry Spencer at U of Toronto Zoology 2 failures; USA, 0 tries. | uunet!attcan!utzoo!henry henry@zoo.toronto.edu